Retail Trade in 2026: Moderate Recovery, but High Uncertainty

In 2026, retail trade in Bulgaria shows signs of moderate recovery, but the business environment remains unstable. Data from the business tendency survey in the sector show that companies maintain positive expectations regarding sales and their business situation, while at the same time facing serious difficulties — mainly an uncertain economic environment, strong competition, and a shortage of labour.

During the first six months of 2026, the business climate in retail trade moves within relatively narrow limits. In January, the indicator stands at 26.9%, and in June it increases to 27.3%.

This shows that the sector is not in crisis, but it is also not possible to speak of strong growth. The weakest point is in March 2026, when the business climate drops to 21.7%. After that, however, there is a gradual recovery, which shows that retailers are beginning to look a little more confidently toward the following months.

The current business situation also gives an important signal. In January 2026, the balance is 29.6, and in June it reaches 33.3. This means that in the second quarter of 2026, retail enterprises report a better current situation compared with the beginning of the year.

Regarding sales, the picture is mixed. The volume of sales over the last three months starts 2026 with a balance of 18.2 in January and reaches 14.7 in June. This means that actual sales were weakest in March, but by June there is a visible improvement.

Expectations for future sales are more positive. In January 2026, the indicator is 18.3, in February it rises to 28.0, and in June the values slightly decrease to 24.6, but remain positive. This shows that retailers expect sales to continue growing, although not at a very strong pace.

Expectations for orders to suppliers also remain positive throughout the first half of 2026. This means that enterprises continue to plan deliveries, but they do so carefully and without excessive optimism.

Inventories in 2026 appear to be relatively well controlled. This shows that there is no major problem with excess stock. For retail trade, this is an important positive signal, because excessive inventories tie up working capital and increase the risk of losses.

One of the more serious signals in 2026 is the movement in expectations for selling prices. This means that in March and April retailers expected a significant increase in the prices of goods, but in May and June the pressure on prices weakened.

From the consumers' point of view, this is an important moment. The data show that in the spring of 2026 there was a clear expectation of price increases, but by June these expectations had become more moderate. This may indicate a calmer price environment in the coming months, if the trend continues.

The retail trade confidence indicator also fluctuates. This shows that confidence in the sector remains positive, but unstable. Retailers are not pessimistic, but they are not completely calm either.

The biggest problem for retail trade in 2026 remains the uncertain economic environment. In January, 48.3% of enterprises identify it as a difficulty, and in June the share remains very high — 59.3%. This is a clear signal that uncertainty intensified again during the second quarter of 2026.

Strong competition also remains a constant pressure on companies. During the first six months of 2026, the share of enterprises that identify competition as a problem is 49.1% in January and 43.5% in June. Despite the slight decrease in June, competition remains one of the most serious factors hindering the sector.

The shortage of labour is also emerging as an important problem. This shows that in the spring of 2026, the staffing problem worsened again.

Demand as a limiting factor decreases during the first half of 2026. This is a positive signal because it means that the problem of weak demand is easing. In other words, customers have not disappeared from the market, but businesses remain under pressure from uncertainty, competition, and costs.

Financial problems do not appear to be a leading difficulty for the sector. Despite the increase in April, these values are relatively low compared with the other problems.

It is also interesting that the share of enterprises without difficulties remains relatively stable. In January 2026, they are 12.4%, in February 14.1%, in March 14.0%, in April 10.8%, in May 14.8%, and in June 14.1%. This means that only a small share of retailers operate without significant obstacles. Most enterprises continue to feel pressure from at least one factor.

The conclusion is that in 2026 retail trade in Bulgaria is moving forward, but cautiously. Businesses see opportunities for better sales, but they are not operating in a calm environment. The sector remains active and resilient, but the success of enterprises will depend on their ability to control costs, maintain competitive prices, find staff, and adapt to changing consumer behaviour.

Main conclusions for the first 6 months of 2026

1. Retail trade in 2026 is recovering, but cautiously. The business climate improves after the weak March and reaches 27.3% in June, which shows stabilisation, but not strong growth.

2. Sales remain positive, but unstable. The volume of sales drops sharply in March 2026, but then gradually recovers. This means that there is movement in the market, but consumption is not completely secure.

3. The biggest problem for businesses is the uncertain economic environment. In May and June 2026, more than half of enterprises identify uncertainty as a main difficulty, which shows that companies are operating carefully and with reserves.

4. Competition remains strong pressure on retailers. Around 43–51% of enterprises in the first half of 2026 identify competition as a problem. This means that companies must fight for customers through prices, quality, and better service.

5. Expectations for future sales are good, but not overly optimistic. During all months of 2026, sales expectations remain positive, which shows that businesses believe in improvement, but remain cautious because of costs, staffing issues, and economic uncertainty.