Business Climate in Bulgaria Improves in May 2026, but Remains Far from Strong Business Optimism

The overall business climate indicator rose to 17.4% in May 2026 — an improvement across all sectors, but without strong optimism.

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The overall business climate indicator increased to 17.4%, with positive signals coming from all major economic sectors.

In May 2026, the business environment in Bulgaria recorded a significant improvement. Data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI) show that the overall business climate indicator increased by 5.1 points compared with April — from 12.3% to 17.4%. Growth was registered in all observed sectors of the economy: industry, construction, retail trade, and services.

The NSI surveys are conducted in accordance with the European Union's Harmonized Programme and reflect entrepreneurs' opinions regarding the current state and development prospects of their businesses. The “business climate” indicator represents the geometric average of assessments of the current and expected business situation in enterprises over the next six months.

Industry Shows the Strongest Optimism

The most noticeable improvement among production enterprises was observed in industry. The composite indicator “business climate in industry” increased by 6.0 points — from 12.4% to 18.4%.

Industrial entrepreneurs reported better production order books and showed greater optimism regarding the development of their activity over the next three months. Assessments of both the current state of enterprises and expectations for their future development improved.

The Construction Sector Looks Ahead with Confidence

In construction, the business climate increased by 4.6 points — from 11.4% to 16.0%. The main reason for the rise was the improved expectations of construction entrepreneurs regarding the state of their companies over the next six months.

The sector also demonstrated greater confidence regarding construction activity in the coming quarter, which may be an indicator of stabilizing investment activity and better prospects for the implementation of construction projects.

Retail Trade Remains the Most Confident Sector

Retail trade continues to maintain the highest level of business climate among the observed sectors. The indicator rose by 1.1 points — from 24.8% to 25.9%.

Retailers gave a positive assessment of the current state of their businesses. At the same time, however, some caution was observed regarding future sales and orders to suppliers over the next three months. This shows that despite good current results, the sector remains cautious about possible changes in consumer demand.

Services Record the Largest Monthly Improvement

The strongest monthly increase was recorded in the services sector, where the indicator rose by 7.8 points — from just 0.4% in April to 8.2% in May.

Managers in the sector demonstrated significantly greater optimism regarding both the current state of enterprises and the future development of business. Assessments of current and expected demand for services also improved, which is an important signal of recovering activity in the sector.

A Positive Signal for the Economy

The results of the business surveys in May show a recovery of confidence among Bulgarian entrepreneurs. The increase in the indicator across all major sectors points to more favorable expectations for the economic environment in the coming months.

It is particularly important that the improvement is not concentrated in a single sector, but is broad-based. This may be seen as a signal of stabilizing economic activity and improving business sentiment in the country after the weaker results recorded in the previous month.

Source: National Statistical Institute (NSI), Business Tendency Survey in Industry, Construction, Retail Trade and Services, May 2026.

Improvement, but Far from Strong Business Optimism

Despite the reported increase in the business climate in May, NSI data show that Bulgarian businesses continue to operate under serious challenges. The overall indicator reached 17.4%, which is significantly higher than the level in April, but still remains a relatively low value from the perspective of entrepreneurial sentiment.

Particularly telling is the fact that even the best-performing sector — retail trade — reported a business climate of only 25.9%, while services remained at 8.2%, construction at 16.0%, and industry at 18.4%. This means that positive assessments outweigh negative ones, but not to an extent that would indicate widespread and sustainable optimism.

Behind the reported improvement, a number of problems remain: an uncertain economic environment, a shortage of qualified labor, high production costs, limited domestic demand in some sectors, and caution regarding future investments. For this reason, the increase in the indicator should be viewed as a positive signal of stabilizing business sentiment, but not as evidence that the difficulties facing Bulgarian enterprises have been permanently overcome.

The data rather indicate a gradual recovery of confidence among entrepreneurs than the beginning of a period of strong and sustainable economic growth.